The State of the Economy Can Be Accurately Predicted by Women’s Shoe Buying Habits!
"The biggest swing in spending has been in retailers, such as Saks and Nordstrom, that target high-income consumers, a pickup that coincided with the rally in the stock market." — economist Michelle Meyer.
The science of economic analysis has taken a leap forward with the discovery of a new, highly accurate economic indicator: The Nordstrom Shoe Index.
Economists were intrigued to find that statistics on consumers' attitudes toward the economy coincided with the actions of a single consumer in Chicago. Taking a closer look, they found that they could track consumer confidence and its resulting influence on the nation's economy simply by following this consumer's interactions with the shoe department at Nordstrom.
The phenomenon came to light during a recent surge in consumer confidence. Barbara relates that she happened to be at Nordstrom buying eye shadow. Something, possibly a premonition of consumer confidence, drew her to the nearby shoe department. She began browsing high-heeled sandals, though she did not need a pair of high-heeled sandals, as her husband would later point out. But then she saw them: brown leather sandals with that thick-strapped look that stops just short of dominatrix, strips of leather accents in a fetching shade of salmon and a breathtakingly high heel.
She bought them.
The Nordstrom Shoe Index spiked.
The same day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 21 points.
The purchase also mirrored the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which in April reached its highest point since September 2008.
Analysts noting the Nordstrom Shoe Index phenomenon were particularly cheered at the price the Nordstrom Shoe Indexer paid — $224.95. They reasoned that consumer confidence had to be surging pretty high for anyone to spend that much on a pair of sandals.
Moreover, the increase in the Nordstrom Shoe Index was accompanied by a high Lying to Spouse score. When her husband asked how much the sandals cost, the consumer claimed they were only $180. Though this still resulted in an increase in the Spousal Irritation Industrials, analysts noted that 20 percent represented an impressive level of lying, significantly above the routine 5 percent spousal lie discount.
However, stock market bears warned of a correction. And sure enough, within days, the Nordstrom Shoe Indexer began to have buyer's regret.
Trying on the shoes at home to defend the "$180" purchase to her spouse, she realized that the heel was so high as to cause intense pain, and not just because of the bunion problem. The heels threw her entire body onto the balls of her feet. She could barely walk in them.
For two days, she vacillated. (Really? Why do we do this to ourselves over cute shoes?)
In the same time span, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 236 points
She brought the shoes into the office one day and tottered along a carpeted hallway, trying to decide whether she could take the pain. An economics debate broke out when several female colleagues stopped to say that her shoes were darling. Upon learning of the pain problem, some counseled her to be practical and return them. Others argued she should man up and wear them no matter how much they hurt because they were so white hot. (Pick some new friends!)
The Dow Jones, aka the Jimmy Choo, rose 49 points, apparently on hope of persuasion.
The direction of the nation's economy hovered in limbo as the Nordstrom Shoe Index progenitor agonized. Stock brokers chain-chewed antacids. Hedge fund managers gnawed on their fingernails. Institutional investors fanned themselves.
Finally, the indexer decided that she couldn't justify spending $224.95 on shoes she could wear only while sitting at her desk.
On Friday, she made the call: Back they would go.
The Nordstrom Shoe Index plummeted.
The Dow Jones dropped 173 points the same day. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index fell 20 points.
Some analysts use complex mathematical formulas to predict the behavior of the economy. Some stock-picking experiments have tried dart boards.
The Nordstrom Shoe Index, however, has earned its place in the economic indicator pantheon. A nation searching for signs of financial direction should consider this:
Barbara laments that she still want a pair of really cute, but lower-heeled, sandals.
Ladies…we all knew our shoe shopping habits were important, but now we know the economy depends on it!
Shop On!
as written by Dr. Crane
